Today the Maine CDC is reporting a total of 1023 cases since testing began on March 12, 2020. Congregate living facilities have accounted for 26% of the total. In Maine there have been only eight new cases since yesterday. The current doubling rate of the epidemic is 19 days, which has improved from a doubling rate of 14 days on April 17. The state reports 549 people have recovered from COVID-19, and there was one more death overnight, bringing the total number of deaths since testing began to 51. More than half of deaths have come from long term care facilities. Over the last 10 days, Maine has averaged 2.2 deaths per day.
The results covered include Maine residents who met criteria for testing, but probably exclude many others who have, or have had, COVID-19 because they were never tested. It is likely that the actual number of cases in Maine is closer to 3-4 times as many as this total. And, it is likely that 25% are asymptomatic carriers capable of spreading disease. During this outbreak, that would mean that roughly, about 1000 people in Maine have, or currently are infected and don’t know it.
Among the total number of positive cases of Maine residents, 244 have been healthcare workers (24% of the total number of cases), including people who work in congregate care facilities.
In the last ten days the daily average number of new cases in Maine has been 20 people (down from a 10-day average of 30 on 4/17/20, which was down from the prior 10-day average of 32-the peak during this epidemic so far). As the average number of new cases has gone down, so has the number of active cases, which peaked at 446 on 4/17/20. The total number of active cases currently is 423.
Numbers are trending in the right direction, all the result of efforts to flatten the curve. It has meant stopping a lot of business, changing the way people get groceries, asking people to use social distancing, wearing masks or face covers, and many other steps. People are frustrated and want to go back to normal, to restart the economy, to at least make a paycheck. The dollar amount in stimulus from the federal government across this nation is staggering: the CARES Act for example, amounted to 2.2 trillion dollars. There is also a fringe of our society that think this is all some sort of hoax. It is not.
There have always been conspiracy theorists. Now they have the internet, and a lot of mixed signals, even from the highest offices of government. To be clear, household cleaners and disinfectants should not be taken internally unless you want to die. Ultraviolet light inside the body can be a fast way to cause cancer. Hydroxychloroquine is a potentially dangerous drug, and anyone telling you to try it without a medical license is committing malpractice, even if that person is the president. There is a saying in medicine: when you don’t know what you don’t know, you’re dangerous.
We have to be cautious. Because we are so painfully far from adequate testing, we do not know who is an asymptomatic carrier, who is sick and does not know it yet (but is probably contagious), and who is immune. We don’t want to reopen businesses as they were before with the likelihood of thousands of infected people in our state. That would mean a rapid growth of the epidemic, and a much worse situation.
Leaders in our state are trying to figure out how to slowly and safely open back up for business. The economy might climb out of this slump, but it has to be done the right way. Doctors are also trying to catch up on patients who have not been seen in the last several weeks. To do these things successfully we need everyone to be very COVID-19 aware. Wear a face cover in public, wash your hands, practice social distancing, and do not touch your face unless your hands and face are clean. The virus is still here. It is dangerous and for some, deadly. And, it is not just a risk for older people, though they seem the hardest hit. All age groups have been infected, 36% of those sick enough to be tested have been under age 50 in Maine. Our numbers are small relative to many other states. Across the nation we currently stand at 985,433 cases and 55,952 deaths. The U.S. has more cases than any other country by a wide margin, over four times as many cases as Spain, the country next after us. This weekend there were reports in the Washington Post of people in their 30s having strokes due to COVID-19. Medical journals have reported many different systemic illnesses associated with this disease. It is serious. Act accordingly. Also have faith that we will get through this. I hope we are all paying attention and learning. We need leaders who understand science, who value experts, who know what they don’t know.
Note that URL links are to sites with changing data tracking the outbreak and represent data at time of this post.
Note also that if you cannot see a graphic associated with this post, it can be viewed on a desktop computer.
