Some public health experts anticipate that no more than 50% of eligible Americans will be fully vaccinated against COVID-19. That is a dispiriting thought when you consider that in the early days of the pandemic it was estimated that somewhere between 70 and 80% of Americans would need to be vaccinated in order to reach herd immunity. However, with the arrival of new variants such as B.1.1.7., which is estimated to be at least 50 times more contagious that the variants that circulated around the US last year, it is quite possible that we may never reach herd immunity, and instead we might wind up with endemic COVID: ongoing disease in our communities and our country.
In the first 100 days of the Biden administration around 220 million doses of vaccine were given. We had reached an average of 3-4 million doses vaccine per day in this country, but have lately seen a decline to fewer than 3 million doses per day. Vaccinations have been opened to younger people and we should have been able to keep the number of vaccinations at a high rate. The main reason that we are seeing the numbers trail off is because of hesitancy among those who have not gotten the vaccine. This is a problem because the B.1.1.7. variant is circulating among young people. Many of them have very serious complications and are being hospitalized. In fact, we learned last week on Maine Public’s program “Maine Calling” (from Drs. Jim Jarvish and Dora Mills) that among hospitalized cases of COVID-19 in the state, over half are winding up in the ICU, and most on ventilators (a year ago 20% were in the ICU, and 5-10% on vents). This is a more aggressive variant, and there are others-some of which don’t look good at all. In Maine hospitalized patients with COVID-19 are sicker, younger, and coming in from more rural areas. At the time of the show 135 Mainers were hospitalized with COVID-19, average age in the 40s! The 40s! A year ago the average age was in the 70s. Finally, we learned that none of these people were fully vaccinated, meaning they have either not had the vaccine at all, or have not made it 14 days past the final dose (dose 1 of Johnson & Johnson, or dose 2 from Moderna or Pfizer). The good news is that more than 80% of Mainers over 60 have been vaccinated.
It is time for trusted messengers to emphasize the need for vaccine among hesitant people. If you have a family member, friend, or caregiver who has not been vaccinated, please encourage them to get the COVID-19 vaccine. I know that they might have a lot of reasons why they feel concerned about this, mostly to do with safety. There are a few key points that you could stress.
First, the vaccine is far safer than a COVID-19 infection. When people have side effects to the vaccine, they are usually because the person’s immune system is working. Flu-like symptoms are a good sign after the vaccine, and do not mean a person is infected. And, there is no truth at all to rumors that the vaccine will contain a tracking device or alter your cell’s DNA-absurd inexcusable lies like that have been circulated by public figures. I always advise people to stop listening to these people, and to get information about COVID-19 from credible medical sources. Talk show hosts, radio personalities, commentators, politicians, and conspiracy theorists are not good sources of information regarding medical facts around the pandemic. If your loved ones still have questions they should ask their medical doctor, and know that 95% of medical doctors got the vaccine as soon as they could. My most significant side effects after the vaccine were senses of relief and joy.
Second, although COVID-19 infection of unvaccinated people might be mild or asymptomatic in many, those people might spread the virus to others for whom it could be deadly. For more on that see prior articles in MPDN on asymptomatic carriers. We should recall that a year ago asymptomatic spread accounted for 40% of infections. I worry that now the number may be higher. We are still seeing numbers of new cases in the hundreds daily in Maine.
Third, when viruses reproduce inside of people they have the chance to mutate and form new variants. The risk in a scenario like that is that a much more deadly variant might arise. That is what happened during the third wave of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic. People were fatigued and tired of physical distancing and mask wearing. They wanted to open things back up, to gather, to go on with normal life. Along came a more deadly wave of influenza. In total, that pandemic killed over 50 million people across the globe, more people than bullets in World War I (1914-1918). This was at a time when the world population was estimated to be less about 1/4 of what it is now. Viruses kill, especially if allowed to infect as many people as possible. We are lucky we haven’t seen a variant as deadly this time.
So please, if there is no legitimate medical reason to avoid it, get the vaccine. Alternatively, if you think you can do it, be a trusted messenger to someone who has not been vaccinated. Tell your loved ones that they need the vaccine too.
